Q3 2026 market outlook
Our quarterly view on macro conditions, digital asset flows and positioning, including the specific developments that would change our mind.
We enter the third quarter constructive but not aggressive. Liquidity conditions are supportive, institutional flows remain net positive, and the yield component of returns is doing more work than directional exposure.
Macro backdrop
Real rates are the variable we care most about. Digital assets have traded as a long-duration risk asset for three years running, and nothing in the current data suggests that relationship has broken.
Positioning
We are adding to staking and basis exposure, holding core large-cap positions steady, and trimming the long tail where liquidity has not recovered.
- Adding: on-chain yield, delta-neutral basis
- Holding: core large-cap directional exposure
- Trimming: illiquid mid-cap positions and anything with a near-term unlock
What would change our mind
A sustained reversal in ETF flows, a major custodian failure, or a policy change that makes institutional staking impractical in a large market.