Real world assets: a sector deep dive
Tokenized treasuries and private credit have grown quickly. We size the market, examine the value accrual, and name the risks honestly.
Tokenized treasuries were the entry point because the underlying instrument is simple and the buyer already exists: crypto-native balance sheets that want yield without leaving the on-chain environment.
Market sizing
Growth has been fast in percentage terms and still small in absolute terms relative to the traditional market. We model adoption as a function of on-chain treasury balances rather than total fund assets, which produces a more conservative picture than most sell-side estimates.
Value accrual
Fee take rates on tokenized cash instruments are thin and getting thinner. The durable business is distribution and servicing, not issuance. We prefer exposure to the platforms that own the customer over the ones that own the wrapper.
Named risks
Every position in this theme carries the following, and we underwrite each one explicitly.
- Legal enforceability of the off-chain claim
- Redemption mechanics under stress
- Concentration in a single issuer or servicer
- Smart contract risk on the transfer agent layer